Despite our being slagged off as lefties from time to time, Scoop in its wisdom has named NZBC second in the "Best Independent Blog" section of its election bouquets.

I must say the election was a real emotional roller-coaster and like others I probably got sucked in by those wildly swinging polls. While Keep Left NZ is crowing about the accuracy of its rolling polls, as far as I can see no single pollster accurately predicted this result (the Herald's rolling poll got close). As to whether those dodgy polls affected the final outcome we will probably never know for sure.

But ACT is way out on a limb in claiming polling cost it 5 MPs:

The Letter said the Maori Party would create an overhang giving Labour the advantage, Peters would lose Tauranga (first to say so) and Rodney would win Epsom. All media reported TVNZ’s Colmar Brunton poll claiming Richard Worth would receive 44%! Their opinion polling and analysis cost ACT at least 5 MPs but also damaged their own credibility.

ACT's own long-standing ineffectiveness and a strong National campaign cost it those seats. Nothing else. The poll may even have saved ACT's Hide, so to speak, by alerting Epsom voters to the need to vote tactically.

Now, a prediction. I predict the centre left will gain at least one more seat from specials and probably two. Why? Just because I was down casting one myself on Friday and the chatter in the very social queue of Sydney-based kiwis was all about how NZ had done well under Labour, so why change.

It's not a scientific sample, just a gut feeling. People overseas don't get to see Helen in her arrogant moments, nor did they see Labour stuttering badly in the last week of its campaign. They just see the figures for economic growth, employment and so forth and they say, hey, that all looks pretty good from here.

For a more forensic analysis of the results, from left and right, we recommend No Right Turn's post here and David Farrar in numerous posts here.