Wednesday, December 14, 2005

Matters of confidence

Chris Trotter, in New Zealand's best business weekly, analyses the prospects of a no-confidence motion against the government and concludes 4 1/2 out of six preconditions for such a vote are present right now. There are some missing elements, though.

The first is that Labour remains under the firm command of its most seasoned and capable politician - Helen Clark.

The second is that, in spite of angry rumblings from the business community and the radical right, New Zealand society continues to display a relatively placid countenance.

However, a hard landing could change all of that.

While economic conditions remain buoyant and the population continues to divert itself with the dangerous pleasures of over-consumption, the rickety nature of this government will not be given much thought.

However, should the long spell of golden weather come to an abrupt end in the new year, and the economy experience the hard landing more and more economists are predicting, then the public's tolerance for Clark's jerry-built regime is likely to evaporate overnight.

Dangers lie on both the right and the left.

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