Centrebet hedges on NZ election call
Last week the Sydney Morning Herald reported Aussie betting agency Centrebet has only been wrong once in the 60 elections.
I put that question to company spokesman Mark Ward today and found he was reluctant to concede the point. I also found he knew the election inside out and back to front.
Ward concedes that Don Brash did cross the line as favourite in Centrebet's odds. However, the betting had been volatile. On Friday, he says it was around 60:40 in favour of National. On Saturday it went to 50:50 and in the last hour Labour led.
While conceding Labour still went over the line a slight underdog, Ward says Centrebet never issued its usual bullish press release calling a result.
"It was one of the very few we couldn't call," he says. $600,000 in bets were placed, he says, the equivalent of a couple of Premier League rounds.
Ward, an Englishman based in Sydney, talks freely, expertly and passionately about the election, right down to the contests in Epsom and Tauranga. And he is hugely critical of the polling delivered in its lead-up.
"A couple of the polling companies have to have a good hard look at themselves," he says, insisting even if Centrebet was wrong at the end, it was still more accurate.
Polls showing 6 and 7 per cent gaps were ludicrous, he says, especially when 20 to 25 per cent of people on Thursday and Friday didn't have a clue how they would vote. He says 20 undecided voters will usually break 12:8 for the incumbent, and that's pretty much what happened. The polls exagerated support for National.
Thursday night's debate was behind the surge in betting support for National, he says, as Brash stood up and arguably carried the night.
"The general feeling was he was a dead-set chance, and that caused a couple of people to get a bit overexcited and take some losses."
So, when he's next asked the question, was Centrebet wrong once or twice?
"It's a matter of public record we went to the line with Labour as underdog," he says. "You could mark it down as a loss but I say we never really called it."
Last night one new TV poll put the parties neck and neck, while a second placed National ahead, as did the online bookmakers Centrebet, whose only electoral failure in 60 polls worldwide to date has been picking Jeff Kennett to win over Steve Bracks in 1999.That's a proud record indeed, but as betting closed before the New Zealand poll on Saturday, the agency had Don Brash ahead. Does that make it 2 out of 61?
I put that question to company spokesman Mark Ward today and found he was reluctant to concede the point. I also found he knew the election inside out and back to front.
Ward concedes that Don Brash did cross the line as favourite in Centrebet's odds. However, the betting had been volatile. On Friday, he says it was around 60:40 in favour of National. On Saturday it went to 50:50 and in the last hour Labour led.
While conceding Labour still went over the line a slight underdog, Ward says Centrebet never issued its usual bullish press release calling a result.
"It was one of the very few we couldn't call," he says. $600,000 in bets were placed, he says, the equivalent of a couple of Premier League rounds.
Ward, an Englishman based in Sydney, talks freely, expertly and passionately about the election, right down to the contests in Epsom and Tauranga. And he is hugely critical of the polling delivered in its lead-up.
"A couple of the polling companies have to have a good hard look at themselves," he says, insisting even if Centrebet was wrong at the end, it was still more accurate.
Polls showing 6 and 7 per cent gaps were ludicrous, he says, especially when 20 to 25 per cent of people on Thursday and Friday didn't have a clue how they would vote. He says 20 undecided voters will usually break 12:8 for the incumbent, and that's pretty much what happened. The polls exagerated support for National.
Thursday night's debate was behind the surge in betting support for National, he says, as Brash stood up and arguably carried the night.
"The general feeling was he was a dead-set chance, and that caused a couple of people to get a bit overexcited and take some losses."
So, when he's next asked the question, was Centrebet wrong once or twice?
"It's a matter of public record we went to the line with Labour as underdog," he says. "You could mark it down as a loss but I say we never really called it."
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